Sunday, March 29, 2009
A tale of two Guv races (election analysis part 4)
Yes, it’s been a long time between posts. Hardly any of my absence is due to my rotator cuff and its rehab—which has gone so well that I’ve “graduated” from physical therapy—but let’s pretend that that’s the reason, OK?
I’ve been sitting on these tables for a while now. The data were in place, but I hadn’t written the analyses and explanations surrounding them. Well, I still haven’t, but it’s been almost five months since the 2008 election and interest in its results may be fading in light of the new challenges we face in the world of 2009. So I’ll simply present the numbers themselves, for those who may be interested.
These two tables show the King County election results of the last two gubernatorial races—the excruciatingly close 2004 election and last November’s. In both cases, Democrat Christine Gregoire faced off against Republican Dino Rossi. The 2004 race was complicated by the presence of Libertarian candidate Ruth Bennett ... even more so because the marriage-equality activist Bennett wasn’t exactly a typical Libertarian. In 2008, thanks to the odious “top-two” primary, the Gregoire-Rossi rematch excluded all other candidates from the general election.
While the 2004 election was deadlocked statewide, Gregoire won King County comfortably. Within the county, however, there were real Eastside-Westside differences. The following table of the 2004 King County gubernatorial results by Legislative District, sorted in descending order of registered 2008 voters (as described previously), displays the phenomenon. The “winning” percentage within each LD is shown in bold italics. Gregoire racked up well over 70% in the city of Seattle (basically, LDs 36, 43, 46, 34, and 37), while Rossi took all of the Eastside LDs (5th, 41st, 45th, 47th, 48th, and 31st). The LD “winner” tally came to 7-6 Gregoire in the King-only LDs, 3-1 in the partials.
| Legis Dist | Voted 2004 | Gov votes | %no Gov | Gregoire | Pct. | Rossi | Pct. | %Bennett | %Write-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th | 73,059 | 71,687 | 1.88% | 29,887 | 41.7% | 40,634 | 56.7% | 1.6% | 0.07% |
| 36th | 79,505 | 77,481 | 2.55% | 55,529 | 71.7% | 20,042 | 25.9% | 2.3% | 0.18% |
| 43rd | 74,414 | 71,957 | 3.30% | 56,755 | 78.9% | 13,122 | 18.2% | 2.7% | 0.23% |
| 41st | 70,955 | 69,206 | 2.46% | 33,533 | 48.5% | 34,490 | 49.8% | 1.6% | 0.08% |
| 46th | 71,361 | 69,513 | 2.59% | 49,435 | 71.1% | 18,528 | 26.7% | 2.1% | 0.16% |
| 45th | 67,114 | 65,736 | 2.05% | 29,395 | 44.7% | 35,041 | 53.3% | 1.9% | 0.08% |
| 34th | 64,581 | 63,083 | 2.32% | 41,448 | 65.7% | 20,031 | 31.8% | 2.4% | 0.18% |
| 47th | 55,838 | 54,706 | 2.03% | 24,523 | 44.8% | 29,047 | 53.1% | 2.0% | 0.09% |
| 48th | 59,486 | 57,959 | 2.57% | 27,692 | 47.8% | 29,157 | 50.3% | 1.8% | 0.09% |
| 37th | 51,986 | 50,314 | 3.22% | 38,257 | 76.0% | 10,570 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 0.30% |
| 30th | 49,029 | 47,926 | 2.25% | 22,796 | 47.6% | 23,924 | 49.9% | 2.4% | 0.11% |
| 11th | 44,274 | 43,071 | 2.72% | 25,602 | 59.4% | 16,160 | 37.5% | 2.9% | 0.16% |
| 33rd | 46,634 | 45,511 | 2.41% | 23,823 | 52.3% | 20,563 | 45.2% | 2.3% | 0.14% |
| 32nd* | 55,659 | 54,390 | 2.28% | 31,232 | 57.4% | 21,906 | 40.3% | 2.2% | 0.14% |
| 31st* | 22,667 | 22,219 | 1.98% | 9,666 | 43.5% | 12,064 | 54.3% | 2.1% | 0.10% |
| 1st* | 11,342 | 11,085 | 2.27% | 5,473 | 49.4% | 5,385 | 48.6% | 1.9% | 0.14% |
| 39th* | 334 | 324 | 2.99% | 197 | 60.8% | 115 | 35.5% | 3.7% | --- |
| King County | 898,238 | 876,168 | 2.46% | 505,243 | 57.7% | 350,779 | 40.0% | 2.2% | 0.14% |
In 2008, when the statewide results were surprisingly unclose, Governor Gregoire’s vote percentage was appreciably higher than it had been four years earlier. Overall, she gained 6.2% in King County while Rossi’s percentage fell by 4.3%. The destination of Ruth Bennett’s 2.2% from 2004 is unknown, though I do note that she generally received higher percentages in the strongly-Democratic LDs than in the rest of the county. Fewer voters skipped the governor’s race in 2008 than in 2004, so even without an alternative candidate there was less “a pox on both their houses” thinking this time around. However, without the availability of a third choice, the percentage of write-in votes was slightly less infinitesimal in 2008 than in the previous election.
None of the LDs where Gregoire led in 2004 were won by Rossi in 2008. Given the size of most of her margins, that’s not a shock. But there were significant changes in the other direction. Narrow Rossi leads in the 41st and 48th LDs turned into 10%-plus Gregoire margins. A small edge for Rossi in the 30th became a six-point Gregoire win. And the 45th LD, a comfortable Republican advantage in 2004 flipped to a narrow Democratic lead four years later. While the partial-LDs stayed at 3-1 for Gregoire, the LD tally for the King-only LDs was a decisive 11-2; only the 5th and 47th LDs stayed (slightly) Republican, along with the King County portion of the 31st.
| Legis Dist | Voted 2008 | Gov votes | %no Gov | Gregoire | Pct. | Rossi | Pct. | Write-in | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th | 81,464 | 80,213 | 1.54% | 38,530 | 48.0% | 41,458 | 51.7% | 225 | 0.28% |
| 36th | 82,076 | 80,508 | 1.91% | 62,747 | 77.9% | 17,413 | 21.6% | 348 | 0.43% |
| 43rd | 75,823 | 74,140 | 2.22% | 62,627 | 84.5% | 11,187 | 15.1% | 326 | 0.44% |
| 41st | 73,568 | 72,244 | 1.80% | 39,871 | 55.2% | 32,133 | 44.5% | 240 | 0.33% |
| 46th | 73,669 | 72,269 | 1.90% | 55,948 | 77.4% | 16,049 | 22.2% | 272 | 0.38% |
| 45th | 71,507 | 70,212 | 1.81% | 36,254 | 51.6% | 33,682 | 48.0% | 276 | 0.39% |
| 34th | 66,451 | 65,236 | 1.83% | 47,375 | 72.6% | 17,550 | 26.9% | 311 | 0.48% |
| 47th | 58,198 | 57,370 | 1.42% | 28,437 | 49.6% | 28,671 | 50.0% | 262 | 0.46% |
| 48th | 58,507 | 57,309 | 2.05% | 31,550 | 55.1% | 25,566 | 44.6% | 193 | 0.34% |
| 37th | 55,761 | 54,512 | 2.24% | 45,242 | 83.0% | 9,054 | 16.6% | 216 | 0.40% |
| 30th | 49,916 | 49,060 | 1.71% | 25,906 | 52.8% | 22,922 | 46.7% | 232 | 0.47% |
| 11th | 45,812 | 44,854 | 2.09% | 29,677 | 66.2% | 14,938 | 33.3% | 239 | 0.53% |
| 33rd | 46,229 | 45,412 | 1.77% | 26,605 | 58.6% | 18,598 | 41.0% | 209 | 0.46% |
| 32nd* | 56,838 | 55,843 | 1.75% | 35,993 | 64.5% | 19,636 | 35.2% | 214 | 0.38% |
| 31st* | 22,203 | 21,906 | 1.34% | 10,103 | 46.1% | 11,714 | 53.5% | 89 | 0.41% |
| 1st* | 11,699 | 11,483 | 1.85% | 6,304 | 54.9% | 5,127 | 46.6% | 52 | 0.45% |
| 39th* | 317 | 314 | 0.95% | 188 | 59.9% | 122 | 38.9% | 4 | 1.27% |
| King County | 930,038 | 912,885 | 1.84% | 583,357 | 63.9% | 325,820 | 35.7% | 3,708 | 0.41% |
One more observation about these tables… The number of valid votes in the gubernatorial race increased by 4.2% between 2004 and 2008. The Gregoire vote count rose by 15.5%, while Rossi’s vote total (even without Bennett siphoning off votes) fell by 7.1%. His dropoff was county-wide; Rossi’s vote count was lower in 2008 than in 2004 in all but two LDs. In the fast-growing 5th, Gregoire added almost 9,000 votes while Rossi’s total increased by just over 800, and he added seven votes to his count in the two King County precincts that are in the 39th District.
