Sunday, October 26, 2008
On the verge
OK, OK, I’m not counting any chickens yet. But, after tonight’s 10-2 rout over Tampa Bay, my Phillies lead the 2008 World Series three games to one! Big Ryan Howard is (finally) strutting his stuff, with a homer yesterday and two more today. And tomorrow’s starter for the Phillies is the best starting pitcher of the postseason thus far, young southpaw Cole Hamels.
Again, we phans, especially those of us who’ve lived through the 1964 Phold and the horror of Game 3 of the 1977 NLCS, know not to get too far ahead of ourselves.
Still, it feels a whole lot better being a Phillies phan than it would be for a Rays rooter.
There have been 103 World Series played since the first one in 1903. For reasons that escape me, five of them were played as best-of-9 series instead of the best-of-7 we’re now accustomed to. Of the remaining 98, nearly half—40, or 40.8%—have stood at 3-1 after four games. Well, actually, one of those 40 had a tie game early in the Series, so it was actually 3-1 after five games.
By far the most common outcome of 3-1 World Series is a victory in the next game by the team with the lead. Some 22 of those 3-1 Series (55.0%) have ended up at 4-1. The first of those came in 1905, as John McGraw‘s New York Giants defeated Connie Mack‘s Philadelphia A’s in the second World Series ever played. And it’s happened as recently as 2006, when the St. Louis Cardinals dismissed the Detroit Tigers.
In an additional 10 World Series (25.0% of all that stood at 3-1), the leading team lost Game 5 before closing out the Series in Game 6. The first of those came in 1911, with the Mackmen returning the favor on McGraw’s Jints. Though the most recent took place back in 1995 (Atlanta over Cleveland), it was the third WS in a row that finished 4-2 after the winner had taken a 3-1 lead (1993, Toronto over the Phils ... grrrrr, and 1992, the Blue Jays over the Braves).
The rarest outcome following a 3-1 lead is for the leading team to lose a pair of games before recovering to salvage the Series finale. It’s happened only three times, in 7.5% of the 3-1 leads. The first of those was in the aforementioned 1912, when the Red Sox lost Games 6 and 7 to the Giants (remember, this was the Series that included a tie game), and then went into the 10
Finally, the ultimate World Series collapse—losing three straight games after taking a 3-1 lead (no team has ever lost the first three and then won four straight in the World Series ... the 2004 Red Sox did it in the ALCS). It’s happened five times, 12.5% of all 3-1 Series. In 1925, the Pittsburgh Pirates achieved the first such milestone against Walter Johnson and the Washington Senators. The Bucs did it again in 1979, falling behind Baltimore before roaring back to the tune of Sister Sledge’s We Are Fam-i-ly. The damn Yankees did it to the defending World Champion Milwaukee Braves in 1958, and Mickey Lolich‘s third win of the 1968 Series won it for the Tigers against the reigning champion Cards. The most recent time was way back in 1985, when Kansas City won its only World Series by overcoming the Cardinals.
So which kind of World Series will this one turn out to be? I’m really hoping for another of those most-common outcomes, that the Phillies win this Series tomorrow night in front of their home fans. But, to be honest, I’d be thrilled with any result other than that last type. As I’ve noted any number of times, I was out of the country when the Phils won it all behind Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, and Tug McGraw in 1980. I didn’t see the (as of now) only World Series ever won by the baseball team I’ve followed for over half a century. I really, really want to see the Phillies win this one.
Finally, in the event that happy outcome actually takes place, I wonder how long it’ll take before the sponsorship statement for this page is revised. Probably not too long…
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Hello to logo linkers
[UPDATED—see bottom of the post]
This isn’t so much a posting as a test of the various search engines out there on the Intertubes. My “traffic” is up quite a bit in recent days, almost entirely as a result of Phillies phans looking for their club’s logo. A bit over a year ago, when the Phils slipped past the fading Mets to win the 2007 NL East race, I included the logo in an exultary posting.
That Phillies logo in my September 30, 2007 posting has become the most common entree to Peace Tree Farm during this baseball season. Understandably, it’s become a really common entree in the last couple of weeks. But I’d prefer to have my guests—still rare, but becoming more numerous recently—find their way to this year’s postings instead of last year’s.
So I’m reposting the logo. And I’m linking it to a recent posting on a political topic, to see whether that gets any of the logo-seekers to look elsewhere. Having no particular knowledge of how search engines operate, I have no idea whether it’ll have any particular effect.
Oh, one more thing:
GO PHILLIES!!!
UPDATE
BEAT THE RAYS!!!
Monday, October 13, 2008
Comeback!
It didn’t look good for the guys in red after seven innings tonight. They trailed the Dodgers 5-3, with explosive southpaw Hong-Chih Kuo on the hill as the Phils batted in the top of the 8th.
Slugger Ryan Howard singled up the middle to lead off the inning, prompting LA manager Joe Torre to replace Kuo with righthander Cory Wade. After Wade induced a popup from Pat Burrell, switchhitting Shane Victorino smacked a homer into the right field bullpen to deadlock the game! My friend Linkmeister, the Dodger diehard in Honololu, must have been particularly apoplectic that “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” did the deed.
But that wasn’t all for the Phightin’ Phils in that inning. Following the second out, catcher Carlos Ruiz grounded a single past shortstop Rafael Furcal. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel sent up Matt Stairs, looking like a refugee from a softball beer league, to hit for pitcher Ryan Madson. Torre countered with Jonathan Broxton, his ace reliever.
In this chess match, Manuel and my Phillies won the gambit—Stairs crushed a huge homerun deep into the pavilion in Dodger Stadium’s right field, giving the Phils a 7-5 lead! A four-run inning for the good guys!
Still, the Phils needed to record six more outs to seal the deal. Lefty J.C. Romero was on the mound in the bottom of the eighth. He gave up a walk, but that baserunner was quickly erased by a double play. At this point, Manuel brought in closer Brad Lidge, who hadn’t blown a save all season (but had never pitched more than one inning), to face red-hot Manny Ramirez. Manny continued his stupendous postseason, ripping a double to center. Lidge fanned Russell Martin, but Ruiz couldn’t handle the third strike and Martin made it safely to first base, with Ramirez moving to third. Oy vey! However, Lidge retired James Loney to end the inning.
After an uneventful top of the ninth, Lidge returned to the mound. Remember that he’d never pitched more than one inning all season. How would he handle this extra work?
The answer, happily, is that Lidge did a bang-up job! Pinchhitter Nomar Garciaparra hit a routine fly to Victorino in center, Casey Blake quickly whiffed, and Jeff Kent (hitting for Broxton) lined out to thirdbaseman Pedro Feliz to end the contest and give the Phillies a 3-1 lead in the NLCS.
Lidge threw 24 pitches, but with a day off tomorrow he should be ready to roll in Game 5. If he’s needed, that is—the Phils will send out ace starter Cole Hamels on Wednesday to try to clinch the series and move on to the World Series. Hamels pitched seven splendid innings in the opener last Thursday, allowing two runs and striking out eight Dodgers.
As a lifelong phan, I refuse to be an optimist here. The Phillies have been known to dash my hopes ... I vividly remember the Phold, which happened 44 years ago. But I’ll certainly be cheering for them!
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Presidenting
As we turn into the homestretch of the race to Election Day 2008, things are looking bad for the Republicans. After two presidential “debates” and another between the vice presidential candidates, state after state is bluer than it was yesterday. And yesterday was bluer than the day before.
Whether you follow Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight or Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com, or local number cruncher Darryl Holman of Hominid Views, it’s looking good for the good guys.
Many states won by Dubya is 2004 (some of them quite comfortably) are now nicely in the Obama column. Iowa has been bright blue all year, and New Mexico solidly Democratic for months. We’ve been seeing Obama in the lead for the last couple of weeks in Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina. And Nevada, Missouri, and West Virginia seem to be joining the fun as well. Even a rock-ribbed Republican bastion like Indiana may be within range!
With the disastrous choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate, with his horrendous performance in last night’s “town hall” debate—supposedly his strongest format—and with a gutter campaign of negative attacks, Senator McCain is finding that his erratic gambles are falling flat at every turn. He’s long been known as a coarse and impetuous man, prone to sudden decisions without much forethought. As I understand it, he’s a high roller at the craps tables in Las Vegas (though he doesn’t report gambling winnings or losses on his tax returns).
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign continues to operate at a high level of competence and intelligence. One metaphor is that they’re playing chess while the Republicans are playing checkers (though it’s looking more and more like Go Fish or even 52 Pickup these days). The contrast between the two campaigns is ever more visible, ever more definitive.
In honor of the current state of the McCain candidacy and the down-home folksy Joe Sixpack g-dropping diction of his unqualified running mate, I’ve taken the liberty of slightly adjusting their campaign logo for them. I hope you find it at least slightly amusing.
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Still rolling!
Phils win! Phils win! Phils win!
Thanks to the big stick of Pat the Bat and surprising effective mound work by midseason acquisition Joe Blanton, Philadelphia beat the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon by a score of 6 - 2, thereby winning their National League Division Series, three games to one.
Their next game will be at home on Thursday, against Los Angeles. The Dodgers swept Chicago, ensuring that those futile lovable, cuddly Cubbies will go yet another season without a World Series appearance (this makes it 63 straight years) and that they’ll begin a second century since they last won the Series.
I know that Linkmeister has a strong rooting interest in the Dodgers, and suspect he’ll be commenting here soon. I’m looking for the Phils to avenge the awful NLCS events of 1977 and 1978, particularly the top of the 9th of Game 3 in 1977 (emphasis in original):
DODGERS 9TH: Baker grounded out (third to first); Monday grounded out (second to first); DAVALILLO BATTED FOR YEAGER; On a bunt Davalillo singled to second; MOTA BATTED FOR RAUTZHAN; Mota doubled to left [Davalillo scored (error by Sizemore; assist by Luzinski), Mota to third]; Lopes singled to third [Mota scored]; ground ball off turf-seam hit Schmidt in knee and caromed to Bowa who apparently threw to 1B in time; Froemming said safe; Lopes was picked off first but was safe on an error by Garber [Lopes to second]; Russell singled to center [Lopes scored (unearned)]; Smith grounded out (pitcher to first); 3 R (2 ER), 4 H, 2 E, 1 LOB. Dodgers 6, Phillies 5.Neither the strange Schmidt-Bowa play—and yes, the throw did beat Davey Lopes to the bag—nor the botched pickoff was the worst event of that inning. No, it was that “double” off the bat of Manny Mota. All season long, manager Danny Ozark had replaced Greg Luzinski in left field with defensive specialist Jerry Martin when the Phils led in the late innings. Inexplicably, The Bull was still on the field with the good guys leading 5-3, two outs, and nobody on base. After Vic Davalillo’s bunt single, Mota hit a deep flyball to left. Martin would have been standing at the wall to make the game-ending catch, but the slow Luzinski was still on the move as he reached for it, banged into the fence, and dropped the ball. Calling it a double was extremely charitable to Luzinski (it was clearly an error, though whether to charge it to Luzinski or Danny Ozark remains unsettled), but the play was extremely painful to all of us phans.
Beating the Dodgers in the 1983 NLCS partially made up for 1977 and 1978, but it isn’t enough. They need to be defeated again, here in 2008.
Let’s go, Phillies!
