NJ-Gov & VA-Gov ... business as usual

What’s been the underlying theme of the national press coverage of the 2009 election?  I’m sure you’ve seen it or heard it.

NPR: GOP Victories Offer A Warning To Democrats
New York Times: Republicans Seek Impetus From Victories in N.J. and Va.
Washington Post: Contests serve as warning to Democrats: It’s not 2008 anymore
Associated Press (via Seattle Times): GOP sweep: Big governor victories in Virginia, N.J.

And Republican National Committee chair Michael Steele crows, based on the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial results, that the GOP is “transcendent”.

They couldn’t be more wrong.

The outcomes of yesterday’s pair of gubernatorial elections, disappointing as they were, were absolutely typical behavior for the electorates of the Garden State and the Old Dominion.  Yesterday’s results were, in short, business as usual.

Why do I say this?  Well, consider the following table:

Election Years	President	VA Governor	NJ Governor
1976 / 1977	Jimmy Carter	John N. Dalton	Brendan Byrne
1980 / 1981	Ronald Reagan	Chuck Robb	Thomas Kean
1984 / 1985	Ronald Reagan	Gerald L. Baliles	Thomas Kean
1988 / 1989	George H.W. Bush	Douglas Wilder	James Florio
1992 / 1993	Bill Clinton	George Allen	Christine Todd Whitman
1996 / 1997	Bill Clinton	Jim Gilmore	Christine Todd Whitman
2000 / 2001	George W. Bush	Mark Warner	Jim McGreevey
2004 / 2005	George W. Bush	Tim Kaine	Jon Corzine
2008 / 2009	Barack Obama	Bob McDonnell	Chris Christie

The table displays the results of the last nine presidential elections, as well as the outcomes of the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections a year later.  Each cell’s background color indicates the political party of the victor in that election, using the now-standard blue for Democrats and red for Republicans.  Do you see the pattern?

In every single one of the last nine elections, a year after the presidential election Virginia has elected a Governor of the “other” party.  If the President is a Republican, the new Governor is a Democrat.  And vice versa.  Every time since 1977.

By comparison, New Jersey is a piker.  They’ve been doing exactly the same thing, but merely in the last six election cycles.  They’ve followed this pattern only since 1989.

Thus, yesterday’s electoral results in New Jersey and Virginia simply followed hoary tradition in those two states.  A consistent pattern retained its consistency.  Certainly, there were additional factors that made the elections interesting, that influenced the margins in the two contests.  But the outcomes were fully in keeping with the way politics works in the two states.

Will you ever see any such analysis on your television?  Will you ever hear any such analysis on the radio?  Will you ever read such analysis in the newspaper (if you do, in fact, still read a newspaper)?

Not bloody likely.

Comments

And, other than the potential harm Republian governors can do with redistricting after the 2010 census, the Dems picked up two votes in the House yesterday, which gives Nancy Pelosi a little more leeway.

But do we hear about that?  Nah.

Separately, thanks for the birthday wishes.

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Linky, Nancy only “picked up” one vote.  Tauscher wasn’t a progressive Dem, but she wasn’t a Blue Dog either.

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