Sunday, November 01, 2009

Crux of the matter

When the Phils took a 3-0 lead in the second inning last night, with Cole Hamels seemingly in full control on the mound, I briefly entertained the thought that my Phils might take Game 3 and build up momentum for a successful World Series.  Twas not to be, unfortunately, as ARod doinked an opposite-field homer off a TV camera—yeah, I think the umps got that one right, and yeah, I think instant replay is useful for very, very limited situations such as that one—and the slumbering bat of Nick Swisher came to life.

The defeat, by an 8-5 margin, cranks up the pressure on the Phillies for tonight’s contest.  For all intents and purposes, they must win tonight.

As I related last year, a 3-1 lead in the World Series is very difficult to overcome.  It’s only been done five times; the other 36 times a club has led the Series after completing four games, that club has eventually won it all.  That includes, happily, last year’s Phillies.

If C.C. Sabathia (and relievers) beats Joe Blanton (and relievers) tonight, it’s still possible for the Phils to join:

• the 1925 Pittsburgh Pirates, against the Washington Senators
• the 1958 Yankees (grrrrrrr), against the Milwaukee Braves
• the 1968 Detroit Tigers, facing the St. Louis Cardinals
• the 1979 Pirates, defeating the Baltimore Orioles
• the 1985 Kansas City Royals, against the Cardinals

If the Phils lose tonight, they can take heart in the fact that three of the above comebacks were completed on the road.  The ‘58 Yanks, ‘68 Bengals, and ‘79 Buccos all won Game 5 at home and then Games 6 and 7 before the fans of their shocked opponents.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves here.  The Phillies can still win Game 4.  Which would make Game 5 tomorrow night the crux of the matter.

[UPDATE, 8:48pm]

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…