Sunday, October 26, 2008
On the verge
OK, OK, I’m not counting any chickens yet. But, after tonight’s 10-2 rout over Tampa Bay, my Phillies lead the 2008 World Series three games to one! Big Ryan Howard is (finally) strutting his stuff, with a homer yesterday and two more today. And tomorrow’s starter for the Phillies is the best starting pitcher of the postseason thus far, young southpaw Cole Hamels.
Again, we phans, especially those of us who’ve lived through the 1964 Phold and the horror of Game 3 of the 1977 NLCS, know not to get too far ahead of ourselves.
Still, it feels a whole lot better being a Phillies phan than it would be for a Rays rooter.
There have been 103 World Series played since the first one in 1903. For reasons that escape me, five of them were played as best-of-9 series instead of the best-of-7 we’re now accustomed to. Of the remaining 98, nearly half—40, or 40.8%—have stood at 3-1 after four games. Well, actually, one of those 40 had a tie game early in the Series, so it was actually 3-1 after five games.
By far the most common outcome of 3-1 World Series is a victory in the next game by the team with the lead. Some 22 of those 3-1 Series (55.0%) have ended up at 4-1. The first of those came in 1905, as John McGraw‘s New York Giants defeated Connie Mack‘s Philadelphia A’s in the second World Series ever played. And it’s happened as recently as 2006, when the St. Louis Cardinals dismissed the Detroit Tigers.
In an additional 10 World Series (25.0% of all that stood at 3-1), the leading team lost Game 5 before closing out the Series in Game 6. The first of those came in 1911, with the Mackmen returning the favor on McGraw’s Jints. Though the most recent took place back in 1995 (Atlanta over Cleveland), it was the third WS in a row that finished 4-2 after the winner had taken a 3-1 lead (1993, Toronto over the Phils ... grrrrr, and 1992, the Blue Jays over the Braves).
The rarest outcome following a 3-1 lead is for the leading team to lose a pair of games before recovering to salvage the Series finale. It’s happened only three times, in 7.5% of the 3-1 leads. The first of those was in the aforementioned 1912, when the Red Sox lost Games 6 and 7 to the Giants (remember, this was the Series that included a tie game), and then went into the 10
Finally, the ultimate World Series collapse—losing three straight games after taking a 3-1 lead (no team has ever lost the first three and then won four straight in the World Series ... the 2004 Red Sox did it in the ALCS). It’s happened five times, 12.5% of all 3-1 Series. In 1925, the Pittsburgh Pirates achieved the first such milestone against Walter Johnson and the Washington Senators. The Bucs did it again in 1979, falling behind Baltimore before roaring back to the tune of Sister Sledge’s We Are Fam-i-ly. The damn Yankees did it to the defending World Champion Milwaukee Braves in 1958, and Mickey Lolich‘s third win of the 1968 Series won it for the Tigers against the reigning champion Cards. The most recent time was way back in 1985, when Kansas City won its only World Series by overcoming the Cardinals.
So which kind of World Series will this one turn out to be? I’m really hoping for another of those most-common outcomes, that the Phillies win this Series tomorrow night in front of their home fans. But, to be honest, I’d be thrilled with any result other than that last type. As I’ve noted any number of times, I was out of the country when the Phils won it all behind Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, and Tug McGraw in 1980. I didn’t see the (as of now) only World Series ever won by the baseball team I’ve followed for over half a century. I really, really want to see the Phillies win this one.
Finally, in the event that happy outcome actually takes place, I wonder how long it’ll take before the sponsorship statement for this page is revised. Probably not too long…
